The risk is to adopt a position that no one adopts, except the US. So, without legitimacy. Thus, Brazil's vulnerability to any reprisals of these terrorist organizations is presented as a real element," says Renatho Coast

Middle East expert and author of "The ayatollahs and the fear of the Islamic Republic of Iran," Renatho Costa, professor of International Relations at the Federal University of Pampa (UNIPAMPA) believes that the proposal of the elected president Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) to transfer the Brazilian embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem can lead to problems that go far beyond the economic issue - as the boycott of Arab countries , responsible for import about 23% of animal protein produced in Brazil.

For him, this movement in the intricate international diplomatic chess can generate understanding that Brazil embraces the Zionist cause, directly influencing the behavior of Islamic extremist organizations. "And, as Brazil is not prepared for the operation of terrorist organizations, it can be an easy target."

The dispute over Jerusalem, home to holy sites for Jews, Christians and Muslims, takes place before the creation of the State of Israel. In 1947, at a meeting chaired by the Brazilian Oswaldo Aranha, the General Assembly of the United Nations (UN) decided by the Palestine partition plan between an Arab state and a Jewish, and Jerusalem was called the "corpus separatum" (separate body) under international control.

In 1948, with the independence of the State of Israel, the Lebanese forces, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia attacked the territory, ushering in the Arab-Israeli War. At the end of the war, Jerusalem was divided, with the western part under Israeli control and the eastern part controlled by Jordan.

In 1967, Israel captured the eastern part of Jerusalem and since then occupies the entire city and is building settlements in East Jerusalem, considered illegal by the international community. The position is disputed by the Israeli government, which won power after the president of the United States, Donald Trump, recognize the city as Israel's capital and transfer the US embassy there in May this year.

Trump aligned policy, Bolsonaro has reaffirmed the intention to do the same with the Brazilian embassy. "Who decides the state capital is the respective state. I do not see why this whole uproar, "he said after meeting with the president of the Superior Court of Justice (STJ), Minister João Otávio de Noronha, and the future Minister of Justice, Federal Judge Sergio Moro, on 7 November.

Speaking to Forum , the PhD in Social History from the University of São Paulo (USP) and coordinator of the Strategic Analysis Group Middle East and Muslim Africa (GAE-Omam) states that this position of being a "satellite" of the United States in international relations could put Brazil in check.

"The more unbalanced is Brazil's position on this issue, the greater the risk of reprisals. The risk is to adopt a position that no one adopts, except the US. So without legitimacy. Thus, Brazil's vulnerability to any reprisals of these terrorist organizations is presented as a real element. "

According to Costa, the appointment of Ernesto Araujo to take the Foreign Ministry confirms this alignment, with the aggravation of an old-fashioned bias, based on the struggle "between good and evil," the Cold War.

"More daring still, he launches arguments presuppose the creation of a religious crusade to defend supposed values. To some extent, the future chancellor seems to be the projection of the thinking of President-elect internationally. He is not a conservative, as there are many in the Foreign Ministry, it is an ultra-conservative with speech and thought that if implemented, will leave a scar on the Brazilian diplomacy. "

 

Read the entire interview.

Forum: In Lula and Dilma governments, using the soft power, Brazil has built a reputation of respect among the most influential nations and the leading role in conducting sensitive issues with the developing countries. Bolsonaro shows that it will be "hard" in foreign affairs. What changes this should cause the Foreign Ministry?

Renatho Costa:We need to consider that the Foreign Ministry is an organ that develops foreign policy proposed by the government. This is true of any government. Certainly diplomats have different views on the Brazil forward positioning on the international community, but the government is who will establish the main line of action. In this sense, from his premise that the future government Bolsonaro shows a more 'hard vision "in position on international issues, which I share, the first aspect that will prevail will be a substantial loss of" soft power "that Brazil won in the last years. As an immediate result, Brazil will not be considered an actor "neutral" and reliable. In this sense, business processes will always be viewed as "suspicious". Thus, in theory, Brazil would have to keep their interests from other capacities, such as their economic or military poderios. As Brazil demonstrates weaknesses in both aspects, most certainly, your negotiations will be tense and not build partners to develop projects soon run only circumstantial. Brazilian diplomacy will have a hard time maintaining its tradition as the model presented is very forceful and unilateral serves to powers that do not need to negotiate and impose themselves, although it is highly questionable posture, but for those who do not enjoy the "hard power "will be much more complicated. only circumstantial. Brazilian diplomacy will have a hard time maintaining its tradition as the model presented is very forceful and unilateral serves to powers that do not need to negotiate and impose themselves, although it is highly questionable posture, but for those who do not enjoy the "hard power "will be much more complicated. only circumstantial. Brazilian diplomacy will have a hard time maintaining its tradition as the model presented is very forceful and unilateral serves to powers that do not need to negotiate and impose themselves, although it is highly questionable posture, but for those who do not enjoy the "hard power "will be much more complicated.

Forum: Beyond economics, which impacts the possible transfer of the Brazilian Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem may result in relations with the Arab countries?

Renatho Costa:I believe that substantially changes the direction of Brazilian foreign policy regarding the defense of the right of self-determination, as Brazil is one of the great advocates of this law, and has been endorsed by the UN the creation of two states in Palestine, Brazil recognized Palestinian state based on their values. Now, the transfer of the embassy, ​​ultimately, is to disregard the demand of the Palestinian community, given even that Jerusalem is not recognized by international community as Israeli capital - it is a city occupied by Israel and which should be under international administration. So accept the transfer means delegitimizing the Palestinian demand that, if we follow the summits of the Arab League, is the most important issue since its foundation. Can be clashes between the Arab countries, but the defense of the Palestinian cause is striking. Another concern arises, given the break with the Palestinian cause to generate understanding on the part of Islamic extremist organizations, that Brazil embraces the Zionist cause. From there, the shield that the country had, which was guided by a balanced view expounded by its diplomacy is lost completely. And, as Brazil is not prepared for the operation of terrorist organizations, it can be an easy target. The more unbalanced is Brazil's position on this issue, the greater the risk of reprisals. The risk is to adopt a position that no one adopts, except the US. So without legitimacy. Thus, Brazil's vulnerability to any reprisals of these terrorist organizations is presented as a real element.

Forum: This ideological approach Bolsonaro with the United States and Israel can cause diplomatic problems for Brazil? Which are?

Renatho Costa:I think the biggest problem initially tends to be about the commercial aspect. The notorious preference that Brazil demonstrates by submitting to US interests, including overlapping the China - because of its communist ideology - can lead to the loss of international market. And the more dependent on the US, the less autonomy in the field of international politics, and even acting in South America to meet the US interests. Basically, Brazil will again be a US satellite. I do not mean that Brazil has had absolute autonomy to act as internationally wanted, would be naive. South America has always been under US influence, but with different degrees of activity. However, the greater the international integration of the country and it gets allies, diversifying trade, it increases the difficulty of interference in the designs of Brazilian foreign policy by the United States. Thus, the automatic alignment to the model of the "America First", by itself, since it states that Brazil will be a supporting actor who never have met his demand to confront US interests. And no other possibility to express connections, you must bow your head and say "Yes, sir." The defense of Israeli interests and even its conception, is presented as an aggravating factor. Maintain relations with the state of Israel, historically, Brazil has, but to list this relationship as a priority and to idealize it, I do not think that adds nothing to the Brazilian foreign policy, just shows naiveté and an ideological position that the president ever elected criticized. On the other hand,

Forum: How do you see the situation of the Brazilian diplomatic front Bolsonaro government and what you do overall analysis of proposed Bolsonaro for Brazilian diplomacy? 
Renatho Costa:In fact, only the president-elect said he did not want diplomacy guided by ideology and give priority to national interests. Well, the ideological issue is questionable because it seems to me that he will try to impose a view over the direct and automatic alignment with the United States. It is not new, but that seemed overcome terms. The international system has changed and Brazil need not be US satellite, as the president wants, including delivering the Alcantara base for the Americans, instead of investing in aerospace development. There are many indications that US interests will guide Brazil's foreign policy, then, the Brazilian diplomatic corps, because of its technical quality, will have to try to reduce the negative impacts of this attitude in the long run. If you can not go against the guidelines that will you present the president-elect, the ability will cause Brazil does not lose everything he could. Lack to President-elect knowledge about the structure of the international system and an advisor to show you that you can not do as the US and say "Brazil first" with the same results. The Brazil at most a regional power can be considered, but its recognition was guided by the policy of "soft power" that had been building in recent history. If it ceases to exist, then the military and economic power will have to speak louder. I believe that there will be diplomats to meet this "suicide" role for Brazil, but the country will lose a lot in the long run and another president will have to reconstruct the history that Brazil was treading hitherto internationally. I have been in several Middle Eastern countries doing research and, no doubt, and Pele and Neymar, everyone knows, depending on age, Lula da Silva is a name that always mention. Bolsonaro, so exposed so far, it seems to play Brazil for a foreign policy model that no longer fit in the twenty-first century. But as he said he would do what the country back to the 1950s, it makes sense that his concern with "communist" instead of understanding a world in which multilateralism should prevail.

Forum: What did you think of the choice of Ernesto Araujo to head the Foreign Ministry? 
Renatho Costa: When the president-elect announced that he would choose a career diplomat for the Foreign Ministry there was a moment in a quiet, because (the Foreign Ministry) would no longer be occupied by politicians like Senators José Serra or Aloysio Nunes who advocate an openly privatizing policy and pro-US. However, with the official announcement of Ernesto Araujo, the situation got worse. As the president-elect has demonstrated little knowledge of foreign policy, most likely, who will dictate the guidelines of the PEB (Brazilian Foreign Policy) will be the Minister Ernesto Araujo and not the president. This is a reversal of roles, as the Foreign Ministry is an executing agency of foreign policy. With absolute freedom to act and, using your articles and speeches as a reference to design a future PEB, I believe that the alignment with the US will be absolute, as the new chancellor believes that Trump is the lifeline of the West. That sucks for Brazil, as its earnings and international projection thereby made the defense of a multilateralist policy based on its soft power. As the country has no power to project itself as a military power, nor would there be the possibility of that happening in Latin America because of US action. Multilateralism is the key to open Brazil to Africa, South America, European Union, BRICS, etc. Now, giving up this strategy and making the choice to undergo openly to US interests, and political space, certainly trade problems arise, as the possibility of Islamic countries to boycott Brazilian beef if the change in the Brazilian Embassy in Israel. Ernesto Araujo is a figure that seems to experience the times of the Cold War in which alignment should be between "good and evil", it seems that he does not understand the plurality of relationships that are formed with the end of the Cold War. More daring still, he launches arguments presuppose the creation of a religious crusade to defend supposed values. To some extent, the future chancellor seems to be the projection of the thinking of President-elect internationally. He is not a conservative, as there are many in the Foreign Ministry, it is an ultra-conservative with speech and thinking, which if implemented, will leave a scar on the Brazilian diplomacy. Ernesto Araujo is a figure that seems to experience the times of the Cold War in which alignment should be between "good and evil", it seems that he does not understand the plurality of relationships that are formed with the end of the Cold War. More daring still, he launches arguments presuppose the creation of a religious crusade to defend supposed values. To some extent, the future chancellor seems to be the projection of the thinking of President-elect internationally. He is not a conservative, as there are many in the Foreign Ministry, it is an ultra-conservative with speech and thinking, which if implemented, will leave a scar on the Brazilian diplomacy. Ernesto Araujo is a figure that seems to experience the times of the Cold War in which alignment should be between "good and evil", it seems that he does not understand the plurality of relationships that are formed with the end of the Cold War. More daring still, he launches arguments presuppose the creation of a religious crusade to defend supposed values. To some extent, the future chancellor seems to be the projection of the thinking of President-elect internationally. He is not a conservative, as there are many in the Foreign Ministry, it is an ultra-conservative with speech and thinking, which if implemented, will leave a scar on the Brazilian diplomacy. he launches arguments presuppose the creation of a religious crusade to defend supposed values. To some extent, the future chancellor seems to be the projection of the thinking of President-elect internationally. He is not a conservative, as there are many in the Foreign Ministry, it is an ultra-conservative with speech and thinking, which if implemented, will leave a scar on the Brazilian diplomacy. he launches arguments presuppose the creation of a religious crusade to defend supposed values. To some extent, the future chancellor seems to be the projection of the thinking of President-elect internationally. He is not a conservative, as there are many in the Foreign Ministry, it is an ultra-conservative with speech and thinking, which if implemented, will leave a scar on the Brazilian diplomacy.

 

Source: Revista Forum